Apple -- March 4, 2024

Some folks have asked about Apple which is in a rough spell right now. 

Whether to hold, sell, buy -- very different ways to think about this based on one's situation.

For me it all depends on one's reason for having AAPL in one's portfolio in the first place, and one's time horizon.

My time horizon is a rolling 30 years -- that is, every day, when I wake up, my time horizon for my portfolio is 30 years. If I live to 89 years of age, my time horizon will still be 30 years. I will never see the money in this portfolio. It will end up -- 100% of it -- in my estate for the grandchildren.

So, the only question I ask, is this: if I were 30 years old and planned to invest money into a portfolio for my retirement 30 years from now, would I buy AAPL as part of a diversified portfolio?

If the answer is "yes," then there are only two questions that remain, "at what price" and "what percent of the diversified portfolio is invested in AAPL?"

Under those conditions, if I want AAPL in my diversified portfolio, would I pay $170 for it now or wait to see if it might drop to $160? 

I re-balance my portfolio every so often -- sector allotment. This is for new money, not the actual total portfolio. Only for new money.

So, years ago, my energy sector was about 50% of my portfolio. Big mistake and I learned a lot from that.

Two years ago, I worked hard at re-balancing my portfolio, decreasing percentage of energy and increasing tech.

Two years ago, I was not adding any new tech to my portfolio. That changed. I started adding 40% of any new investment money I got into tech. I completely quit adding new energy.

In my "tech" bucket I have seven companies (seven ticker symbols).

Now that my portfolio is re-balanced -- it took two years -- and tech has gotten so expensive, I am putting no new money into tech (with one exception). 

In my "energy" bucket I am interested in only two companies in which to put new money. 

So, back to "tech."

At such high prices, I am putting no new money into tech with one exception: AAPL. Under $185 I definitely buy more AAPL.   Again, not all "new" investment money but a percentage based on my allotment rules.

This is an example. This was my allotment breakdown for "new money" back in January. I am in the process of updating the sectors based on how high tech is right now.

I will definitely remove SNAP; that was a one-time trade which I have since sold.

Change from January, 2024: I will move AAPL to at 10%, new money.  (As of January, 2024, I was adding no new AAPL, but with AAPL this low and other tech so high, I will move AAPL to the tech sector and that will be part of new money for tech stocks.)

UNP will likely be removed; DE has been removed. Percent new money will increase for CAT.

Having said all this, none of us should be doing our own investing; it should be done by a professional but that's a discussion for another time.

This only has to do with the question of AAPL, whether to buy, hold, or sell.

This is subject to change on a daily basis but this gives you an idea how I approach personal investing that is not managed by professionals. 

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The Bigger Question

Why is the financial advisor calling a client to advise selling AAPL after it plummets 9%. Why didn't the advisor call the client to advise selling AAPL when it was climbing faster than usual? One can't time the market, but one can certainly point out to a client when things are moving too high too quickly.

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Another Observation

Brokers should be optimists / buy side, not pessimists / sell side.

Brokers often call to advise selling a particular stock when it's dropping or when it has become too "overweighted" in one's portfolio.

In fact, the broker / financial advisor needs to be watching for buying opportunities, and then call their clients, tell them they've found a great buying opportunity and if they have cash they should consider buying it. If they don't have cash, the clients should consider harvesting tax losses to raise cash to take advantage of the buying opportunity, and if there are no good choices for harvesting tax losses, then the broker should suggest possible shares to sell to raise cash to pay for this buying opportunity. But just to call to advise selling on background noise seems the wrong way to do it.